Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency caused by the presentation of a new 28-article proposal for resolving the conflict appeared – briefly – to have been defused. A Washington representative spoke of "notable headway" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its retaliation: another massive barrage of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Negotiation and Warfare
The sequence of conflicting incidents captured the bleak nature of the current period. By day, diplomatic battles are waged: positive announcements are delivered from various governments. Significant resources is allocated on managing specific proposals. By night, Russian leadership brutally reminds the world that, for them, military action persists as the main instrument for achieving "settlement".
Nighttime Reality
As military strikes developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's defenselessness was exposed. Ukraine is able to track missile launches from Russian territory, a capability afforded by up-to-date information. From vantage locations, military aircraft that had been deployed to intercept incoming cruise missiles flew past – sophisticated military planes supplied to Ukraine by Western partners.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's missile defense activated: defensive missiles deployed against a hostile projectile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, probably supplied through allied countries. Every deployment shakes the surroundings, shaking the windows. The brief panic quickly gives way to grim resignation: perhaps the approaching threat won't strike its target this time, sparing the city from catastrophe and another blackout.
Ongoing Risks
Soon after, a large-caliber weapon opened up on a aerial vehicle in the vicinity, part of a rapid response unit – almost certainly imported technology. Sadly, the bullets missed the enemy aircraft – it continued its flight toward its destination.
Intermittently, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv greeted the morning news: seven people killed, devastation and heating outages in numerous residences as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As customarily, everyone still continued their routines – living the war. But those entire period illustrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on Western support – a dependence that neighboring countries are clearly incapable to substitute in the immediate future.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The detailed framework from US administration generated strong feelings, discussion and profound anxiety – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after previous diplomatic encounters and bilateral conferences.
Every new proposal from American administration unfolds according to the same pattern: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, succeeds in resisting. They contain the crisis but never actually secure success. This trend will, certainly, persist.
Strategic Calculations
It is convenient to criticize specific actors of persistently promoting Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. American leadership functions according to a premise well known to international relations experts: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have failed to defend militarily. The White House believes that it is impossible to pressure the Kremlin to abandon the land that it presently holds in Ukraine's south or east.
The problem is that while acknowledging this situation, Washington does minimal to prevent Kremlin actions, through statements or actions, from believing that the current condition will not change more in its advantage in the months ahead.
Divergent Views
Therefore, Russian leadership is convinced that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its supporters are coming close to fatigue. Their motivation to sign a deal that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is almost completely absent. There may be multiple initiatives to end hostilities, but they will persist as long as Russia's leadership remains supremely confident in the outcome.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still hold out, gradually sacrificing civilians and areas but avoiding a total frontline collapse until situations evolve in its favour.
Present Conditions
Factually, there are no actual prerequisites for a armistice. Now, subjective factors are coming into play: political desires to mediate resolution and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Kyiv's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the national cause against any plan Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their attention does not move to homefront challenges. And although their task will now be much harder after current events, it remains quite doubtful that this will modify their basic position.
These two forces are guiding negotiations.
Assessment and Future
It took a mere seven days to eliminate the suggested clauses of the latest plan. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by Washington, opposition by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with calming attempts of diplomats, and finally, latest revelations, all achieved their purpose.
While new proposals based on old ideas are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off negotiation assaults from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and show particular unwillingness to alter the situation, if they remain united and strengthen their defence capabilities at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the coming months, primarily depend on continued Western support.
