Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that split the country and caused disorder, a advisory is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is equipped.
That represents the warning from two respected commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially tense and transformative referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
New Title Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have analysed the governmental, financial and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the issue with a series of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles all parties, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose results have remained undefined because then you end up with an extraordinarily polarised community where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side are uncertain precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is looming, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, making it uncertain whether or when there will be a referendum.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Partisan language for and against unification has obscured the shortage of serious debate, said the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to make it possible is mostly absent. A lot has occurred in universities but hardly any government figures or advocates want to engage even with the basics. To illustrate, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, neither author supports unification or the current situation. They composes two articles that strive for impartiality in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, assembling economic and social data, previous instances and structural examples.
Discussions encompass identity markers, taxes, healthcare systems, pensions, public liabilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The objective is to enlighten and stimulate conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there is still lacking a dialogue," said the writer. "Debate implies an acknowledgement of the idea that there might be good arguments on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they favour unity but reject paying higher taxes or introducing a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to determine what the proposal from Irish nationalism is aside from just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
McBride considers a referendum in his generation is probable and that it may take place abruptly. "There might be just a mad or a bad or a incompetent secretary of state who states: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, justified perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will win on this issue and somebody will eventually not succeed but each side has possesses valuable insights to gain from the other's arguments."
Call for Broader Debate
Westminster needed to participate in the discussion, urged the analyst. "This is about your state. It is a UK matter as much as it is an Irish issue."
